海外之声 | IMF总裁：给予人们公平机会，制定政策保障复苏
The following article is from 国际货币基金组织 Author IMF总裁
导读
全球性流行的疫情爆发之后，当下我们正处于一个重大转折关头，就像富兰克林·罗斯福所说的那样，“我们所处的这个历史关头充满了希望，也充满了危险”。好消息是全球经济已经变得更加稳固。疫苗的问世让数百万人获得了重归正常生活、再次拥抱朋友亲人的希望。然而，不是所有地方、所有人都能够获得疫苗。太多人仍然面临着失业和不断加剧的贫困。
所以，我们必须要给予每一个人公平的机会，关注弱势群体和弱势国家，他们的经济更加脆弱。必须为“新冠疫苗全球获取机制”（COVAX）提供充足的资金，加快较贫穷国家的疫苗接种进程。
同时，下一步必须为复苏提供保障，通过注资为有生存能力的中小企业提供更多支持，并制定更加有效的破产程序。
最后，投资于未来。协调推进绿色基础设施建设，再加上碳定价，可以在未来15年里拉动全球GDP增长0.7%，并创造数百万个就业岗位。
作者 | 克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃，IMF总裁
中文版演讲如下：
给予人们公平机会，制定政策保障复苏
克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃在IMF/世界银行2021年春季会议上的演讲
引言：希望与危险
法里德，感谢你的热情欢迎；也感谢您——理查德·哈斯以及外交关系协会让我们齐聚一堂。
我们这两个组织之所以能够走到一起，是因为具有相似的历史和价值观——都成立于全球性冲突爆发之后全球重大转折的关头，并且都全心全意致力于建设一个更加和平与繁荣的世界。
今天，我们再度走到了一个转折关头。就像富兰克林·罗斯福所说的那样，“我们所处的这个历史关头充满了希望，也充满了危险”。 [i]
好消息是全球经济已经变得更加稳固。疫苗的问世让数百万人获得了重归正常生活、再次拥抱朋友亲人的希望。
然而，危险并未远离。
经济命运正在逐步分化。不是所有地方、所有人都能够获得疫苗。太多人仍然面临着失业和不断加剧的贫困。太多国家落在了后面。
我们决不能放松警惕！
我们当下的所作所为将塑造危机后的世界。因此，我们必须正确行事。
这首先意味着给予每个人公平的机会——无论人们身处何地，都应获得接种疫苗的机会，从而持久地结束这场疫情；弱势群体和弱势国家应获得公平的未来机会，从而为实现包容且可持续的复苏铺平道路。
这就是下周我们远程春季会议关注的焦点。全球前景：分化与不确定性
让我们看一看经济形势。
今年1月，我们预测2021年全球经济增长率为5.5%。现在，我们预计全球经济增长将进一步提速：其部分原因在于额外的政策支持——包括美国新推出的一揽子财政措施；另一部分原因则在于许多发达经济体今年晚些时候有望出现疫苗驱动的复苏。
我们因此上调了今年和2022年的全球增长预测，相关情况可以从我们下周发布的《世界经济展望》中了解。
能取得如此成绩，是我们的艰苦卓绝奋斗的结果：护士和医生们挽救生命，不舍昼夜；重要岗位上的工作人员们竭尽全力，维系民生；全球科研人员戮力同心，在最短的时间内研制出了疫苗。各国政府也采取了各种非常措施，包括通过财政措施提供了约 16万亿美元以及通过央行注入了大规模的流动性。
如果各方没有同步行动采取这些措施，那么去年全球经济萎缩的程度至少比现在多出三倍。试想一下——那无疑将成为又一场大萧条。此外，我们没有再次遭遇全球金融危机，这不仅因为我们采取了种种超常规的措施，还因为各国在过去十年里携手努力，增强了银行体系抵御风险的能力。
尽管总体前景有所改善，但是各国国内和不同国家地区之间的前景却呈现出危险的分化趋势。事实上，我们看到的是一种“多种速度并存”的复苏，其日益依赖于美国和中国这两大引擎的驱动。到2021年底，能实现GDP远超危机前水平的国家屈指可数，而美国和中国就是其中的两个。
但美中两国只是例外，并非普遍情况。
相较危机之前的预测，我们预计到明年，发达经济体人均收入的累计损失将达到11%。除中国以外的新兴和发展中国家的这一损失将更加严重，预计为20%——它们的人均收入本就远低于富裕国家，现在又减少了五分之一。
这一收入损失意味着数百万人将会贫困交加，无家可归，忍饥挨饿。
我们对这一点十分清楚，但其他许多事情却并不那么清晰。实际上，我们面临的一个最大危险就是极高的不确定性。
未来在很大程度上取决于疫情的发展路径——就目前来看，其受到了疫苗接种进展参差不齐和阻碍增长前景的新病毒株出现的影响，这对于欧洲和拉丁美洲尤其如此。
弱势的新兴市场、低收入和脆弱国家还可能遭遇更大的压力。它们用于对抗危机的“财政火力”本就更加有限，其中很多国家对旅游业等遭受重创的部门敞口很大。
眼下，它们获得疫苗的机会比较小，预算空间甚至更小。其中部分国家的主权、企业或银行部门出现债务困境的风险很高。
除此以外，融资环境也存在不确定性。总的来说，复苏提速带来了好消息，但也可能造成一些不太理想的结果。例如，美国强劲增长可以通过提振贸易使许多国家受益。我们预计通胀将继续得到控制，但是美国加速复苏可能导致利率迅速升高，这会引发融资环境急剧收紧，使大量资本流出新兴和发展中经济体。
这尤其会给外部融资需求巨大且债务水平较高的中等收入国家带来重大挑战。许多这些国家需要获得更多支持。
经济增长的恢复还意味着政策的转变，以及需要应对危机带来的长期创伤影响——这包括应对危机对人力资本造成的影响，尤其是对年轻人、低技能劳动者、女性和非正规劳动者产生的影响。
如果任由这些创伤效应持续存在而不予应对，将会损害增长潜力——使得增加就业和减少不平等变得更加困难。强有力的政策行动——给予人们公平机会
显然，如果不给予人们公平的机会，就无法实现可持续的复苏。
我们该怎么做？
首先，我们必须集中精力摆脱危机。我们必须以科研人员为榜样，积极开展跨境合作，尽一切可能大力推进疫苗的生产、分配和部署。
可选方案之一是将各国行之有效的经验推广至全球层面，即对疫苗生产商、投入品供应商和“最后一英里”分销工作进行补贴。世界也需要建立一种公平的机制，在疫苗的跨国分配上实现以“有余”补“不足”。同时，必须为“新冠疫苗全球获取机制”（COVAX）提供充足的资金，加快较贫穷国家的疫苗接种进程。
这样，我们才能保护民众健康，加速推进复苏。如果这场卫生危机能够更快结束，那么到2025年，全球GDP将增加近9万亿美元。
然而，机会之窗正在迅速关闭。加紧疫苗生产和推广的时间越长，实现这些成果的难度就越大。
当然，必须根据各国的具体需求、疫情的风险敞口以及相关经济要素，对各项政策进行调整。
目前危机尚未结束，我们的重点应当是为弱势家庭和有生存能力的企业提供帮助。这就需要在可信的中期框架内采取有针对性的财政措施，并持续实施宽松的货币政策。
鉴于复苏出现了分化趋势，密切关注金融风险——包括关注资产估值过高的问题——是审慎的做法。此外，各大央行必须就其政策计划开展谨慎的政策沟通，防止国内外金融波动过大。这对支持资本流向有关国家、特别是中等收入国家至关重要。
其次，我们必须为复苏提供保障。随着疫情的好转，政府应当相应缩减休假和支持计划。但是，必须谨慎处理这一转变，需要通过收入支持、有针对性的招聘补贴、各种再培训来缓解其对劳动者的影响。
此外，还应通过注资为有生存能力的中小企业提供更多支持，并制定更加有效的破产程序。在全球范围内，受雇于中小企业的人员数量最多。然而，我们的研究表明，由于支持力度减小，今年中小企业的破产比例可能会大幅上升，从而使这一关键部门十分之一的就业岗位岌岌可危。[ii]
大多数新兴和发展中国家的破产程序相对较弱，这意味着企业破产潮对它们的影响会更加严重。因此，我们必须通过进一步的改革措施来减轻这些经济创伤效应，促进更公平的过度。
第三，投资于未来。这场危机显示了防疫工作的必要性，广而言之，其显示了加大投入提高抵御风险能力，特别是抵御气候冲击能力的必要性。目前，全球正在形成一股打造更绿色、更智能、更包容经济的新势头。
迄今为止，只有一小部分财政刺激被用于气候领域和绿色金融。不过形势正在朝着正确的方向发生转变。
协调推进绿色基础设施建设，再加上碳定价，可以在未来15年里拉动全球GDP增长0.7%，并创造数百万个就业岗位。 [iii]
数字化也拥有巨大的潜力。在最近的一项调查 [iv] 中，近50%的购物者称，相较疫情之前，他们现在更多地使用了数字支付。越来越多的央行开始考虑使用数字货币， [v] 而数字货币可能会改变国际货币体系。此外，数字基础设施投资可以帮助我们实现经济体系的转型，同时提高生产率和生活水平。
为了释放数字化的潜力，我们需要在改善基础设施、广泛普及互联网的同时，加大对人们教育和健康的投资。为此，公共部门需要拥有充足的收入，国家税收制度也需要改革，使其更适合21世纪的需求。对于很多国家而言，这意味着提高税收制度的累进性和公平性。
同时，我们也需要通过多边努力推动国际企业税收的现代化，确保高利润率企业在其业务所在地公平纳税。这也有助于巩固公共财政，尤其是较贫穷国家的公共财政。
所有措施都必不可少，但它们能为我们做的仅限于此。
向以绿色环保和数字化为基础的新全球经济转型具有重大意义；然而眼下的残酷现实是，较贫穷国家有可能错失这一机遇。
国际货币基金组织今天公布了一项新的研究报告 [vi]，其显示：仅仅为抗击疫情，低收入国家就必须在五年内调拨大约2000亿美元。除此以外，它们还需要支出2500亿美元才能重回追赶更高收入水平之路。
这些国家自己只能承担其中一部分。要取得成功就需要各方全面努力——包括加大动员国内财政收入力度，提供更多的外部优惠贷款，在应对债务问题上提供更多帮助等。二十国集团的“暂停偿债倡议”和新的《共同框架》就是一个好的开始。
国际货币基金组织已前所未有地加紧了相关工作。我们向85个国家提供了超过1070亿美元的新融资，还向29个最贫穷成员国提供了偿债减免。以撒哈拉以南非洲地区为例，国际货币基金组织去年提供的资金规模比过去十年的年平均值大约高13倍。
目前，国际货币基金组织成员国对可能的6500亿美元特别提款权分配表示支持，对此我倍感鼓舞。这项分配将在不增加债务负担的情况下增加各国的储备，由此使全体、特别是最脆弱的成员国受益。它将发出一个倡导多边团结的有力信号——释放资源用于疫苗接种计划和其他紧急需求。
我们将帮助成员国实现经济复苏，正如我们帮助它们对抗危机一样。结论
最后，再来说一说我开始提到的富兰克林·罗斯福。1945年2月12日，他呼吁美国国会通过《布雷顿森林协定》，正是这项协定创建了国际货币基金组织和世界银行。
他说：“这个世界不是走向团结和共同繁荣，就是走向分裂。眼下，我们正有机会利用自己的影响力来支持世界加强团结与合作。”
今天，我们正面临着我们这一代人的最大考验，在这时提及这些话再贴切不过了。我们携手建设更美好世界的种种努力，终将被世世代代所铭记。
让我们携手共创机会公平的明天！参考文献
[i] 富兰克林·罗斯福就《布雷顿森林协定》向国会发表的《国情咨文》（1945年2月12日）。
[ii] 国际货币基金组织工作人员讨论说明（待发表，2021年4月）：《发达经济体中小型企业的破产前景：评估和政策选择》。[iii] 2020年10月IMF《全球经济展望》第三章“减缓气候变化”。[iv] 报告：“2020年全球在线支付方式与新冠疫情的影响”。[v] 2021年2月对国际货币基金组织国别经济学家的一项调查显示，70%的国家（总共159个国家）的央行要么正在分析央行数字货币（CBDC）的影响、开展央行数字货币的试验或试点，要么很可能会在中短期内发行央行数字货币。[vi] 国际货币基金组织执董会文件（2021年3月）：《2021年低收入国家的宏观经济形势和前景》。
英文原文如下：
Giving People a Fair Shot—Policies to Secure the Recovery
By Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director
Washington, DC
Introduction: Promise and Danger
Thank you, Fareed, for the warm welcome, and thank you to Richard Haass and the Council on Foreign Relations for bringing us together.
Our two institutions are connected by history and values: both founded at global turning points, following global conflicts; both deeply committed to a more peaceful and prosperous world.
Today we face another turning point. In the words of Franklin D. Roosevelt: “The point in history at which we stand is full of promise and of danger.” [i]
The good news is that the global economy is on firmer footing. Millions of people are benefiting from vaccines that hold the promise of a normal life, of embracing friends and loved ones.
But there is danger as well.
Economic fortunes are diverging. Vaccines are not yet available to everyone and everywhere. Too many people continue to face job losses and rising poverty. Too many countries are falling behind.
We must not let our guard down!
What we do now will shape the post-crisis world. So we must do the right thing.
This means, above all, giving everyone a fair shot—a shot in the arm, everywhere, to bring the pandemic to a durable end; and a shot at a better future for vulnerable people and vulnerable countries to pave the way to inclusive and sustainable recovery.
This will be the focus of our virtual Spring Meetings next week.Global Outlook: Divergence and Uncertainty
Let’s look at the economic picture.
In January we projected global growth at 5.5 percent in 2021. We now expect a further acceleration: partly because of additional policy support—including the new fiscal package in the United States; and partly because of the expected vaccine-powered recovery in many advanced economies later this year.
This allows for an upward revision to our global forecast for this year and for 2022, as you will see in our World Economic Outlook next week.
How we got to this point is a tale of extraordinary effort: nurses and doctors saving lives, essential workers supporting livelihoods, scientists from around the world working together to create vaccines in record time. And governments took exceptional measures—including about $16 trillion in fiscal action and a massive liquidity injection by central banks.
Without these synchronized measures, the global contraction last year would have been at least three times worse. Just think about it—this could have been another Great Depression. Also, we did not have another global financial crisis—not just because of the extraordinary measures, but also because countries had worked together over the past decade to make banking systems more resilient.
And yet, while the outlook has improved overall, prospects are divergingdangerously not only within nations but also across countries and regions. In fact, what we see is a multi-speed recovery, increasingly powered by two engines—the US and China. They are part of a small group of countries that will be well ahead of their pre-crisis GDP levels by the end of 2021.
But they are the exception, not the rule.
The cumulative loss in per capita income, relative to pre-crisis projections, will be 11 percent in advanced economies by next year. For emerging and developing countries, excluding China, the loss will be much worse—at 20 percent, cutting one-fifth of what is already a much smaller per capita income than in richer countries.
This loss of income means millions of people will face destitution, homelessness, and hunger.
We see that clearly. But many other things are less clear. Indeed, one of the greatest dangers facing us is extremely high uncertainty.
So much depends on the path of the pandemic—which is now shaped by uneven progress in vaccination and the new virus strains that are holding back growth prospects, especially in Europe and Latin America.
There could also be more pressure coming to vulnerable emerging market, low-income and fragile states. They already have more limited fiscal firepower to fight the crisis. And many are highly exposed to hard-hit sectors, such as tourism.
Now they face less access to vaccines and even less room in their budgets. And some are already at high risk of debt distress in sovereign, corporate, or banking sectors.
Add to this uncertainty over financial conditions. Accelerated recovery brings good news overall, but it may also create some less desired outcomes. For example, strong growth in the U.S. can benefit many countries through increased trade. We expect inflation to remain contained, but faster US recovery could cause a rapidrise in interest rates, which could lead to a sharp tightening of financial conditions—and significant capital outflows from emerging and developing economies.
This would pose major challenges especially to middle-income countries with large external financing needs and elevated debt levels . Many of those countries will need more support.
Return to growth would also mean policy transition, and the need to deal with the long-term scars of this crisis—among them is the impact on human capital, especially on the young, the low-skilled, women, and informal workers.
Allowing those scars to persist will result in lower growth potential—making it even more difficult to increase employment and reduce inequality.Strong Policy Action—to Give People a Fair Shot
It’s very clear: there will be no sustainable recovery without giving people a fair shot.
What should be done?
First, we must keep our focus on escaping the crisis. We must follow the example of the scientists by stepping up cross-border efforts, by doing whatever it takes toramp up vaccine production, distribution, and deployment.
One option is to pursue at the global level what has worked at the national level—and that is subsidizing vaccine producers, input suppliers, and “last-mile” distribution. The world needs a fair mechanism to redistribute vaccines from surplus to deficit countries and a fully funded COVAX facility to accelerate vaccination in poorer countries.
This is how we can protect people’s health—and accelerate the recovery. Faster progress in ending the health crisis could add almost $9 trillion to global GDP by 2025.
But the window of opportunity is closing fast. The longer it takes to speed up vaccine production and rollout, the harder it will be to achieve these gains.
Policies, of course, must be tailored to country-specific needs—their pandemic exposure as well as economic factors.
While the crisis is still with us, the key is to help vulnerable households and viable firms. This requires targeted fiscal measures—within credible medium-term frameworks—as well as continued monetary accommodation.
Given diverging recoveries, it is prudent to keep a close eye on financial risk—including stretched asset valuations. And major central banks have to carefully communicate their policy plans to prevent excess financial volatility—at home and abroad. This would support vital capital flows, especially to middle-income countries.
Second, we must safeguard the recovery . As the pandemic recedes, government furlough and support programs should be scaled back. But this transition needs to be carefully managed to cushion the impact on workers—through income support, targeted hiring subsidies, retraining and reskilling.
There should also be further support to viable small and medium-sized firms through equity injections—and more effective bankruptcy procedures. SMEs are the world’s biggest employer. Yet our research shows that the share of insolvent SMEs could rise sharply this year as support is scaled back—threatening one in ten jobs in this vital sector. [ii]
Most emerging and developing countries have relatively weaker bankruptcy procedures, which means they would be more heavily affected by a wave of insolvencies. So we need further reforms to mitigate these economic scars—and promote a fairer transition.
Third, invest in the future. The crisis has made the case for pandemic preparedness and—more broadly—for investing in resilience, especially to climate shocks. A new momentum is building towards greener, smarter, and more inclusive economies.
So far, only a small fraction of fiscal stimulus has been directed to climate and green finance. But the tide is turning, and rightly so.
A coordinated green infrastructure push, combined with carbon pricing, could boost global GDP in the next 15 years by 0.7 percent —and create millions of jobs.[iii]
There is also the potential of digitalization. In a recent survey [iv], almost 50 percent of shoppers said they were using digital payments more than before the pandemic. A growing number of central banks are considering digital currencies[v] —which could transform the international monetary system. And digital infrastructure investment could help transform our economic system—boosting productivity and living standards.
To unlock this potential, we need to combine better infrastructure and greater access to the internet with more investment in people’s education and health. This requires sufficient public revenues and national tax systems retooled for the 21stcentury. In many cases, this will mean making them more progressive—and fairer.
This has to be coupled with modernizing international corporate taxation through multilateral efforts—to ensure that highly profitable firms pay their fair share where they do business. This will also help strengthen public finances, especially in poorer countries.
All this is essential. But it will only take us so far.
The harsh reality is that poorer nations are at risk of missing out on what is a historic transformation to a new global economy built on green and digital foundations.
New IMF research [vi] —released today—shows that low-income countries have to deploy some $200 billion over five years just to fight the pandemic. And then another $250 billion to return to the path of catching up to higher income levels.
They can cover only a portion of that on their own. Success would call for a comprehensive effort—more domestic revenue mobilization, more external concessional financing, and more help to deal with debt. The G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative and new Common Framework are a good start.
For its part, the IMF has stepped up in an unprecedented way. We have provided over $107 billion in new financing to 85 countries and debt service relief for 29 of our poorest members. In Sub-Saharan Africa, IMF financing last year was about 13 times more than the annual average over the previous decade.
And I am very encouraged that support is building among the IMF’s membership for a possible SDR allocation of $650 billion. This would benefit all our members, but especially the most vulnerable, by boosting reserves without adding to debt burdens. It will send a powerful signal of multilateral solidarity—freeing up resources for vaccination programs and other urgent needs.
Just as we have helped fight the crisis, we will help our members secure the recovery.Conclusion
Let me end as I began—with FDR. On February 12, 1945, he called on the U.S Congress to adopt the Bretton Woods Agreement, which created the IMF and the World Bank.
He said: “The world will either move toward unity and widely shared prosperity or it will move apart. We have a chance to use our influence in favor of a more united and cooperating world.”
These words could not be more apt today when we face the biggest test of our generation. How we work together to build a better world will be remembered for generations to come.
Let’s give it a fair shot.
Reference
[ii] IMF Staff Discussion Note (to be published, April 2021): Insolvency Prospects Among Small-and-Medium-Sized Enterprises in Advanced Economies: Assessment and Policy Options .
[iii] IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2020), Chapter 3: “Mitigating Climate Change.”
[iv] Report : Global Online Payment Methods 2020 and COVID-19's Impact.
[v] A February 2021 survey of IMF desk economists suggests that in 70 percent of 159 countries, central banks are either analyzing the implications of, currently experimenting with, piloting, or likely to issue a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in the short to medium run.
[vi] IMF Board paper (March 2021): Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Countries 2021 .
编辑 查王皓天
来源 IMF
责编 李锦璇、蒋旭
监制 朱霜霜
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